Confidential report from Michael MacWhite to Joseph P. Walshe (Dublin)
(Confidential) (Copy)

The political situation in Europe appears to grow more complicated from day to day. The friendly gestures exchanged between Italy and Poland immediately after Munich seem to have been affected by a premature blight, for the proposed visit of Count Ciano to Warsaw which was announced to take place has been called off. The Poles are of the opinion that after having first received a pat on the back and a friendly hint to go ahead, Mussolini at Hitler's behest suddenly grew indifferent to their aspirations for a common frontier with Hungary. This desire was, ostensibly, based on the creation of a stronger rampart against the inroads of Bolshevism from the East, but it would also have the effect of erecting four frontiers instead of two in the path of the Germans in their drang nach Osten.

Now, it would seem that the eastern part of Czechoslovakia on which Poland had set her eyes is to form the kernel of a great Ukrainian state under the aegis of Germany. Agitation to this effect was set in motion amongst the Ukrainians some time ago the outcome of which may be that, instead of having her frontiers extended as she ambitioned, Poland may be forced to cede some of her territory to this new State now in the making. Some of my colleagues from the Baltic States assure me that Germany is behind this propaganda - a school for the promotion of which she had established in Danzig some time ago.

The recent visit of Ribbentrop to Paris may not be foreign to preparations for a German move towards the East as by it the inviolability of their western frontier is assured. If they succeeded in annexing Austria and in reducing Czechoslovakia to a state of vassalage in the face of opposition from the great Powers why should they hesitate about taking Ukraine where they have only the disorganised army of Soviet Russia to contend with.

If it is true, as reported, that Ribbentrop gave an undertaking to Bonnet that Germany was disinterested in the Mediterranean area, one can understand better the efforts of the Italian press to convince the people of the solidity of the Rome-Berlin axis. Some months ago the belief was general here that as soon as the Duce had implemented the Accord with Great Britain and clarified his situation in Spain he would gradually pull away from Hitler. Now, however, the shoe appears to be on the other foot. Somewhere in his memoirs Bismarck wrote that Germany did not want an Ally but a horse. As soon as that animal had rendered the desired service he could be abandoned without regret.

For months the Italian people have been assured by their leaders that France is incapable of giving good government to those of her colonies that fall within the orbit of Italian aspirations, and as these are indispensable to the future of the new Italian Empire they should be acquired by force unless they are gracefully surrendered. As I have mentioned in a previous report there is danger in the bluff he may attempt in the realisation of his ambitions and in the justification of his actions before his own followers. He cannot afford to retreat with empty hands, and as he is now in a situation that appears to observers here to be more difficult than any with which he has previously been confronted, time alone will tell if he will be able to extricate himself without damage to his prestige. Increased representation on the Board of the Suez Canal will hardly be considered as a satisfactory price, and he may not even get that.

It has come to my knowledge from a reliable source that the Italian Fleet, in full war strength, is assembled in Sardinian waters. It is regarded as of special significance that Engineer specialists who are always released from service with the approach of Winter have been maintained with the colours. In case of war this Fleet would naturally attempt to cut off Continental France from her African Departments and Possessions by a line, about three hundred miles long, from Sardinia to the island of Majorca. On the other hand, a large part of the French Fleet is concentrated in the lake of Bizerta at the further end of which is the naval arsenal of Sidi Abdalla. The French forces, if temporarily cut off from France could get almost all their necessary supplies from Algeria without much danger as the roads and railways of that province were built by the army and form part of the scheme of National defence.