Confidential report from Seán Murphy to Joseph P. Walshe (Dublin)
(P. 19/34) (Copy)

The more considered French opinion in regard to Hitler's speech seems to be that while in some respects it is a speech 'd'attente', it contains a very definite threat to Poland if she is not prepared to concede the German demands. Practically all agree that the denunciation of the Anglo-German agreement is more a gesture than a threat and some see in it only a proof of the French view which prevailed at the time that the agreement was signed that it was only an effort on the part of Germany to detach England from the side of France in the opposition to the introduction of German conscription and later the occupation of the Rhineland. On the whole, it is felt that such hope as the speech carries for an improvement of the international situation depends on the actions of Germany rather than on what her spokesman may say. In so far as the speech contains a threat against Poland, the situation is believed to be somewhat serious to the extent that most French organs are agreed that Poland will not meet the German demands in regard to Danzig and corridor. A number of this morning's newspapers reproduce statements by Polish statesmen to the effect that the country will resist the German demands even at the risk of war and it is thought that Colonel Beck will officially define the Government attitude somewhat on the same lines in his speech either on the 2nd or on the 5th of this month.

There is no general feeling that Hitler's references to his desire for English friendship will lead to a weakening in Franco-British entente. It is reported that Sir Eric Phipps, when he saw Mr. Bonnet yesterday, assured him of the continued complete identity of view in the policy of the two governments.

Apart from Hitler's speech, the main attention of the press is concentrated on the developments of the Rumanian negotiations in so far as they affect the position of Poland and Rumania, on the development of the Rumanian position and, to a lesser extent, on the visit of General Brauchitsch¹ to Rome. A common suggestion in regard to the latter's visit is that it has to do with the question of the establishment of a single command for the German and Italian armies in case of war. The visit of the Rumanian Foreign Minister to Paris terminated yesterday when he left for Rome. Various statements and declarations made, emphasise the agreement of the two governments. Some papers suggest that the main subject matter of the conversations between M. Gafencu and the Italian statesmen will arise from the desire of Italy to assure herself of supplies of petrol from Rumania and also to include Rumania in a pro-Italian bloc consisting of Hungary, Yugoslavia and Bulgaria. The real situation of Rumania will, however, it is suggested depend to a large extent of the results of the negotiations with the U.S.S.R. as, unless some satisfactory arrangements for assistance to Rumania can be arrived at in these negotiations, the hostility of Bulgaria and Hungary and pressure from Germany may win the day. It is thought, however that progress is being made in the Russian negotiations and that Russia has now promised to undertake to give the kind of aid to Poland and Rumania which they will accept in the event of war and further to give a promise of being actively with both France and Great Britain should they be involved in a war because of their defence of Holland, Belgium or Switzerland, provided that France and Great Britain undertake to guarantee the Balkan states. Polish opposition to accepting assistance from Russia is still regarded as one of the most important factors in the outcome of the negotiations, but some suggest that now that Germany has denounced the treaty with Poland, she will herself feel free to adopt a more friendly attitude towards Russia.