Confidential report from William Warnock to Joseph P. Walshe (Dublin)¹
(43/33)

As you may well imagine, the news that Germany and the Soviet Union intend to sign a non-aggression pact caused foreign circles in Berlin a great surprise, though rumours have been in circulation for some weeks that Herr von Papen was negotiating such a pact in Moscow.

The English journalists are thinking of leaving the country. Some have gone already. The Daily Express correspondent said to me yesterday in a moment of rather grim humour that the only thing for Great Britain to do was to send an ultimatum to Poland, insisting on the fulfilment of the German demands.

As was to be expected, the newspapers are full this morning of articles pointing out the traditional friendship between Germany and Russia, the great Bismarck being quoted as the most brilliant exponent of the possibilities of co-operation between the two countries. There is general sneering at the collapse of the manoeuvres of the 'encirclers'.

Poland is now left high and dry. There is a feeling that the Poles will fight, but it is not thought that they can offer any effective resistance. The return of Danzig is expected almost at once.

I have as yet no idea of the actual terms of the pact. I think, however, that it will be confined to a simple expression that neither country desires to attack the other. The long drawn-out Russian-British-French searches for formulae and saving clauses have become a standing joke.

It will be interesting to see what happens to the Anti-Komintern Pact. The Spaniards are reported to be displeased, and the Japanese are said to be watching the situation carefully.

The Entente (as Britain and France are often called here) appears to be forced with the alternative of either war or an immense loss of prestige. Germany seems about to become the undoubted leader of Europe.

Various wild rumours are in circulation as to the future of Poland. The most believed is that Germany and Russia will once more divide it between them, and restore the pre-war frontier as nearly as possible.

By the time you receive this the position may be clearer. At present there seems to be a great danger of war, unless either Stalin takes pity on humanity and attempts to avert it, or the British and French climb down completely. At all events I think it would be well to consult with the Department of Posts and Telegraphs as to how communication may be ensured with the Legation should hostilities break out between Great Britain and Germany. I earnestly hope that there will be no need of such precautions, but it is much better for us to be on the safe side.