Personal code telegram from Joseph P. Walshe to William Warnock (Berlin)
(No. 158)

Question of duration of war very important for us. Please cable your views taking as your background feeling in Germany and strength of individual leaders. Are latter capable even at this stage of keeping people in the war with so many factors present to discourage any hope of military victory. Opinion strong here that retreat for which there is no adequate military explanation is preliminary to negotiations with Russia.¹ This opinion is no doubt based on belief that Germany's only chance of continuing as great power rests on making change in her social system which would enable her to establish strong links with Russia.