No. 526 NAI DFA Secretary's Files P12/3
Dearg code telegram from Con Cremin to Joseph P. Walshe (Dublin)
(No. 205)
BERLIN, 24 December 1944
Apart from propaganda articles to effect that it finally shattered Allied hopes of terminating war this year and of Germany being so exhausted as to be unable to react, all Press comments upon Western offensive [Ardennes Offensive/'Battle of the Bulge'] make following main points:-
- Germany now, for first time in two years, again possesses military initiative, described as most important achievement;
- Goal of offensive has not been announced;
- Enemy resistance and counter-measures will be exceedingly strong;
- It is beginning of recovery, but road to be travelled is long and difficult and this action in itself will not compensate for all reverses Germany has suffered in past two years;
- Imminent large-scale Russian attacks on Eastern sector must be borne in mind.
On the whole, therefore, tone of Press, which must be regarded as officially inspired, is sober and cautious. The population is very cheered by offensive.
Colleague who has many sources of information tells me he has good reason to believe that military aims of offensive are limited and relatively modest, that objective sought is primarily political, and that, should the offensive succeed, Germans might make some kind of peace move. I think this explanation is, in general, probable: it seems to me (see my telegram 199)1 this must be objective of all German military operations in future, as I do not think leaders here, apart from Hitler perhaps, really believe Germany can now impose her terms on her opponents by force of arms and her aim must therefore be to see that they do not impose theirs on her. I think, however, that, even if present offensive succeeds in sense that Germans can reach and maintain their goal, it may not be immediately followed by diplomatic initiative, as situation on Russian Front must first, it seems to me, become less unfavourable to Germany either by definite stabilisation of whole front at some point or by some German victory, and such an improvement, if possible at all (as some here think it is) will take time.
The reasons for launching Western offensive now are probably –
- that bad weather calculated to hinder Allies exploiting air superiority;
- that, as a result of bombardments and loss of territory, time must be, I think, strongly against Germany in certain domains, especially oil supply;
- to encourage population.
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