Letter from Michael MacWhite to Frederick H. Boland (Dublin)

Since my return here a fortnight ago I have had conversations with several of my colleagues - British, American, French, Belgian, Turkish and Persian - and concluded that they are all more pessimistic and depressed than at any time since the conclusion of hostilities. The Italians feel that the shooting down of USA 'planes by Tito's men was from their point of view the best thing that happened since the Armistice. Sir Noel Charles¹ said it was about time the Americans abandoned their appeasement policy towards the Soviets and adopted an attitude which those people will understand.

A year ago I was of the opinion that war between Russia and the Western Democracies was out of the question for a generation at least, but the Soviet demands at Paris² show that instead of helping post-war reconstruction they are doing their utmost to introduce an era of chaos and disorder. America is now wide awake to their game and that of their Polish and Yugoslav puppets.

A former member of the Roosevelt Cabinet (Frank Walker)³ told me some months ago that it would take Russia about seven or eight years in the conditions then prevailing to make the atomic bomb. With their resources - Tennessee Valley Dam - raw material, technical experts, etc., it took the Americans two years to make a few at a cost of 2½ billion dollars. Russia is experimenting with the German V bombs and the Americans know pretty well how far they have succeeded. They are not going to wait eight years before they strike. Unless there is a complete Russian change of front within the next year or two, I am of the opinion that we must anticipate another war in 1949 or 1950 at latest. It may come sooner. The Austrian and Turkish representatives tell me that the Russians are at present bluffing, that their military machine is in a poor condition, that the million of vehicles given by the USA as well as many of the tanks and planes are now useless from wear and tear and lack of spare parts. The harvest too, has been far below expectations in the Ukraine and in the neighbouring Romania and Hungary and their millions of soldiers in occupied Europe are believed to have deteriorated. The Soviets may not be anxious for war just now but they feel it indispensable (in the Polit-Bureau in particular) that the European pot be kept at boiling point.