Memorandum from Michael MacWhite to Frederick H. Boland (Dublin)
'The situation in Italy at the end of 1946'

Italy finds herself today in a situation very much like that which prepared for the advent of Fascism. She was then as now treated as a poor relation by the Allies. She suffered from food shortages, internal disorders and almost inextricable financial difficulties, but above all from a Government with little authority. After twenty years of Mussolini, the Italian people now seem to be suffering from a surfeit of democracy the sense of which they do not understand.

Only a forceful and capable leader of high intelligence can solve the difficulties, economic and financial, under which they labour but, at the moment, there is no appearance of such a person on the political horizon. The high cost of living and the resultant misery has provoked, particularly in the South, manifestations of despair amongst the industrial and agricultural workers while the mounting inflation renders tragic the difference between the wage level and the cost of food. The latter increases from day to day whereas the former only advances slowly and even then at the cost of strikes and bloodshed.

In addition to the financial and economic crisis there is a serious political crisis. The Constituent Assembly is bringing its labours to a close and parliamentary elections are foreshadowed in the Spring which threaten to undermine the dominant position so far held by the Christian Democrats, particularly in view of the advance made by the Left Bloc in the local elections two months ago.

The three party Government which has been maintained thus far by the subtlety of De Gasperi, is unlikely to survive the next trial of strength. In fact, each of the three parties have their own internal divisions and only yesterday at the Socialist Congress one fourth of the members who object to unity of action with the Communists withdrew and formed an independent Socialist party. This means that the extreme Left will be strengthened.

The Christian Democrat party who obtained nine million votes at the elections last June, is in no better position. The only bond that holds them together is the fear of Communism.

At a party Congress held some weeks ago the majority rallied round one of the biggest landed proprietors of the peninsula as they do not wish to antagonise the Right, believing they have enemies enough on the Left. Their programme, however, clashes with that of social reform which was advocated by Don Sturzo the founder of the party. The present leader of this group has strong socialist tendencies and its union with the right wing Socialist group just broken away from the main body may not be excluded. De Gasperi endeavours to conciliate the different currents, but his task seems hopeless.

The traditional parties of the Right-Liberals, Republicans and Monarchists count perhaps amongst their members the ablest statesmen but they have receded into the background. Then, there is the Common Man party which has rallied round its banner all the discontented voters and succeeded at the local elections in getting the fourth place. It constitutes the unknown factor in the forthcoming elections. It has no programme beyond that of general attack on all the other parties. With a capable, statesmanlike leader which it has not at present, it might succeed to office and give the country the direction that is now lacking.

The Communists are the best disciplined of all the parties. Their internal difficulties, if they have any, are not known to the public. They seem convinced that the Government will collapse either as a result of the Socialist schism or during the parliamentary debates of the Peace Treaty when they will make a bid for power. They have bridged the difference between the agricultural and industrial workers and the peasants and the system of landlordism that exists all over [the] Southern part of Italy has facilitated their task.

It is to seek an escape from the blind alley that De Gasperi has gone to Washington. The United States have an interest in preventing Italy from drifting further to the Left and linking up with the Soviets. There are perhaps some Americans who think it is too late to prevent the further slipping in this direction and that money lent would be irredeemably lost. Financial and economic aid at present would probably tide De Gasperi over many of his difficulties, but to return empty handed would undoubtedly pave the way for his Marxist opponents who are already planning his downfall.