Confidential report from John A. Belton to Seán Nunan (Dublin)
(Confidential)

After years of disappointment and frustration, the Chancellor, Dr. Adenauer finds himself not only still far from the realisation of the main lines of his foreign policy but now confronted with new obstacles. He himself, however, is not dismayed but is, if anything, more determined than ever to pursue his foreign policy to the bitter end. He has consistently shown a most commendable patience and understanding, vis á vis the various vacillations of the French Government, firstly in the matter of the EDC proposal and secondly in their failure to ratify the Paris Agreements. He has taken blow after blow with a calm courage which has inspired a world respect, and now at the age of 78 he is facing his new problems quite unbowed.

The fall of M. Mendès-France although by no means unexpected was quite a blow. I had an opportunity last week after a dinner party [in] Cologne of discussing this matter with him. He assured me that he was not seriously worried because he felt confident that whatever Government succeeded that of M. Mendès-France, the basic lines of French Foreign policy including the rearmament of Germany would be maintained. As he said to me, the worst that can happen is delay.

The fall of Malenkov¹ is regarded by Dr. Adenauer as a material gain, insofar as the Russian policy of greater production of consumer goods against that of heavy industry has been completely reversed by Marshal Bulganin.² This he described as a devastating blow to the anti-rearmament groups in West Germany. He had only to quote the new Soviet Prime Minister to demonstrate clearly the significance of the new policy insofar as West Germany is concerned.

But probably, the biggest obstacle which Dr. Adenauer now faces is the new and highly organised campaign of the Socialist Democrat Party against rearmament and in favour of a Four Power conference. This campaign for public opinion will be fought by the Chancellor with every means at his disposal. It was begun before the fall of M. Mendès-France and undoubtedly had succeeded in organising a very powerful segment of public opinion. Even at that stage, the Social Democrats had some very good cards in their hand. They had some obvious trumps such as:

1) The Russian threat to withhold German re-unification indefinitely if West Germany rearmed: 2) the possibility of war with Germany as the cockpit and the Allies pulling another Dunkerque: 3) the intolerable burden of the cost of an effective German Army and 4) the appeal to parents and wives not to throw away the lives of their children and husbands to support the policy and interest of the United States. Now the Social Democrats have the further argument why should West Germany again expose itself to the possibility of accepting a plan which its French authors may reject. Undoubtedly this point of view does carry weight with a number of Germans who not only distrust but despise the French. The present inability of the French to find a Government to replace [that] of M. Mendès-France and the unsatisfactory nature of the Saar settlement are, of course, not overlooked by the Opposition.

Dr. Adenauer has inaugurated a vigorous counterattack against these arguments. He has arranged for a series of public meetings to be held by prominent members of the Cabinet throughout West Germany. The main lines of the counterattack will be: 1) the undisguised hostility of the new Russian Government; 2) the Russians have no respect for a policy of appeasement. They were violent in their threats against Turkey, Yugoslavia and Japan for their pro-Western orientation, but when these peoples stood fast, the Soviet Government became much more conciliatory; 3) the economy of West Germany is linked with the Western and other free nations of the world. One has only to compare the economic position of the East Zone with that of West Germany to realise what reliance upon the Soviet Union would mean for the West German worker.

On the question of the ratification of the Paris Agreements he stands fast in his confidence that the next French Government will ratify. In this regard a certain amount of scepticism is beginning to show itself as the unlikelihood of the new French Government, if and when it materialises, having any real strength, is becoming more apparent.

The arguments against the Saar Agreement Dr. Adenauer has so far rather airily dismissed on the grounds that the Agreement was the least that could possibly be accepted in present circumstances. He got rather a shock in the Parliament this week when the Government proposal as to the Saar received a much smaller majority than he had expected.

The future of Western Germany depends to a very large degree on the future of Dr. Adenauer and his future depends to a very large degree on entering the Western community with a German Army without too much delay. Dr. Adenauer can only go forward with his policy. In the eyes of the German people, he has passed the point of no return. The pity is that the decision would appear to rest in Paris and not in Bonn.