No. 349 NAI DFA/5/313/27
Confidential report from Sir Desmond Cochrane to Seán Murphy (Dublin)
Report No. 1 (1955)
(Confidential)
Beirut, 18 June 1955
After visits to both Egypt and Iraq, it is, under the circumstances, an interesting moment in which to record the present state of extraordinary tension that exists throughout the Middle East. For the last three months the whole pivot of politics here has been the Turco-Iraqi agreement1 which has caused endless excitement and divided the Middle East into three camps — Turkey and Iraq together against Egypt and Saudi Arabia, whilst Syria and Jordan waver between the two trying to profit from both sides without getting swallowed up by either; and finally the Lebanon whose history has proved fence-sitting to be the healthiest policy since time began.
After an absence of 30 years Turkey wants to play a leading role in the Middle East, which is resented by the more Arab Arabs who feel they were badly treated during the régime of the Ottoman Empire, and equally resented by the Egyptians who although more African than Arab have fancied themselves as the leaders of the Arab World since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. In the meantime Iraq sees the possibility of taking over Syria, Jordan and possibly the Lebanon. Saudi Arabia, at the moment handicapped by its new King’s2 lack of intelligence (which was always remarkable and has now become quite frightening since his succession) is proving more clearly than ever that it is not possible to pitch fork a country from a way of life which would have been considered backward in the time of our Lord, into the American idea of civilisation which is based on the theory of A Bottle of Coca-Cola on Every Table. What Saudi Arabia does not want is a modern go-ahead Pan-Arab state in which their role would be one of comparative unimportance.
Syria with a wobbly government and with domestic trouble being stirred up by Iraq on one side and Egypt on the other, does not know which way to turn. If one could assure the rulers of Syria that joining with Iraq would not in any way lessen their personal incomes, the country would be about 90% for Iraq. The Lebanon is undoubtedly better on its own in which position it can profit as it has done since the Flood from its richer and less intelligent neighbours.
The conditions existing in the countries involved in this mêlée are more or less as follows:-
| Turkey. | Certainly making the most extraordinary progress economically and socially on the surface; but not on an entirely solid basis. Most of their ‘economy’ is based on playing off England against America, and this system has met with in the last week a slap in the face in the form of a flat refusal of a large loan that they were counting on from the US. Their idea of dealing with social problems is to keep a standing army which seems to embody the majority of the male population. President Bayar3 is here at the moment in Beyrouth and although one can not deny that he has improved his country immensely, perhaps 75% is due to circumstances and may go backwards at any moment should these change. |
| Iraq. | Here undoubtedly is a country with a future. From the point of view of Government it is rather a One Man Band in which Nouri Said4 does everything and in which no one will take the least decision without his approval. Its oil production is on the increase; it has endless other mineral resources; and its agricultural possibilities are unlimited.
In Iraq (with the exception of Jordan which is not interesting) the English Influence is stronger than anywhere else in the Middle East. Added to which both sides have been intelligent in their dealings with each other. Whilst I was there the English handed over all the Military installations to the Iraqis. This gave excellent publicity to the régime in that they were able to say how independent they had become, and at the same time the English personnel in the services put on Iraqi Uniforms and everything went on as before. The administration of Iraq is interesting to study. The laws made by the Chamber of Deputies sitting in Baghdad really only apply in Baghdad and the towns such as Basra. Apart from these towns all other government and administration is tribal and seems to work very well. If modern methods of agriculture were introduced the fertility of Iraq would be unique. Even now, by sowing wheat on land that is unploughed and not irrigated one gets a wonderful crop; but were the same land to be tilled and irrigated it would be possible to have three crops a year. |
| Egypt. | Here the outlook is not bright unless they suddenly find oil. Say what one will, a bunch of enthusiastic amateurs will not rule a country well however sincere their enthusiasm. Egypt’s economy is based almost entirely on the Cotton market. This, through the stupidity of the Government and also due to the fact that so many other countries are now growing cotton, has gone very bad. There seems a 75% chance of finding oil and if that happens then the situation should be saved, but apart from this hope there is nothing much. |
| Saudi Arabia. | As mentioned above the new king is not at all up to the standard of his father.5 As with all oriental monarchies, his worst enemies are his relations and most of them are more intelligent than he is. The royal family had already got rather out of hand towards the end of King Ibn Saud’s reign, and now it is much worse. The revenues from the oil and the pilgrims go direct to the King and he has to give allowances to his relations and run the country. He is starting schools and hospitals and has adopted the system of appointing cabinet ministers from outside the family. All of which sounds all right but he succeeds the whole time in antagonising both sides. It is a situation which could lead to a palace revolution or else go on as it is indefinitely. In either case there would be little change for the better. |
| Syria. | With a President6 whose policy is in direct contradiction with the government; a Foreign Minister7 who in Paris at the moment is following a policy that has the support of neither the President nor the Government; and a Minister of Education8 who gets drunk at official dinners and makes speeches that result in the banning of alcohol at official functions, it can be seen that the present régime is not very satisfactory. The future of Syria will depend on the size of the subsidies from Egypt on one side and Iraq on the other. |
| Jordan. | Everything seems quiet and if any changes take place they will be according to English decisions. |
| Lebanon. | Apart from discussions about the Turco-Iraq pact there is nothing of interest. The government is not very strong because the cabinet is divided amongst themselves. The Minister of Justice9 has resigned and the Minister of Foreign Affairs10 is going to resign after the visit of the Turkish President. Here no one takes much notice of the Cabinet anyhow and probably until after the summer the Prime Minister11 will not replace them. It is interesting to note that when I asked the Prime Minister whom he would put into the Ministry of Justice he explained to me that he had promised so many people seats in the cabinet in order to have their support, that he felt that by nominating one of them now to the vacancy he would turn so many others against him that it would be better to do the work himself. |
| Israel. | I have not visited Israel for some time and accordingly cannot comment on their domestic situation. The position at Gaza is very serious, but with a Military Government in Egypt it is not impossible that Colonel Abdel Nasser rather likes to keep this tension going so as to remind his followers how important an army is. |
| Conclusion. | The key note of this brief report is more or less the possibility of arriving at some sort of unity among the different Arab States. Whereas it might be possible for Iraq to take over Syria and make a success of it, the impossibility of forming a larger ‘bloc’ is amply illustrated by the Arab States’ total lack of adhesion or co-operation over the Israel problem. |
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