Confidential report from Frank Biggar to Seán Murphy (Dublin)
(Secret)

As you know, the recent IRA raids² have evoked little official re-action from the British Government although it may be taken for granted that the matter was one of the items on the Agenda of the Cabinet meeting held on Monday afternoon. Later that evening the Prime Minister had a conference with the Chief of the Imperial Staff³ and the Secretaries of State for War⁴ and the Home Office.⁵ No statement was issued as a result of this meeting but it was headlined in next day’s papers, which universally assumed that action to tighten up existing security measures was decided upon. No doubt some action in this direction has been taken. It seems clear, however, that no general order for the arming of guards at military camps has been issued and that the decision in each case is being left to the discretion of individual Commanding Officers.

There has been no approach whatsoever from the British authorities to the Embassy. I have not had occasion to visit the Commonwealth Relations Office since the Arborfield raid but I met the Permanent Under-Secretary, Sir Gilbert Laithwaite, at a reception on Monday and, even though we chatted for a few minutes, he made no reference to the IRA; nor did I of course bring up the subject.

Despite the vast amount of press publicity which the raids got, it seems certain that they have aroused no great feeling amongst the general public. August is of course the month when great numbers are on holiday and when interest in public affairs becomes even more tepid than usual. Our impression of the average Englishman’s re-action is one of mild interest in a dramatic story tinged with amusement at the discomforture of the Army and rather complacent satisfaction with the efficiency displayed by the Police in recovering the stolen arms. Since no one got hurt, most people probably look at the incidents with the tolerant feeling that they are just what one might expect of the wild and unpredictable Irish. It may even be true, as one paper suggested, that the Englishman’s alleged traditional sympathy with the under dog makes him rather admire the daring and skill of the raiders. Certainly there has been a notable absence of letters to the press about the incidents — we have seen only three in the last week; nor has the Embassy received any of the indignant letters or telephone calls which we invariably get when, for example, the export trade in live horses is in the news. It may also be worth mentioning that Aer Lingus has not noticed any abnormal cancellations or falling-off in bookings. Nevertheless it is probable that the raids have tended to reinforce the average Englishman’s concept of the Irish as a likeable but fundamentally irrational people with a dangerous idée fixe about their national woes.

There is good reason to believe that Catholic opinion fears that continued IRA activities in this country will re-act unfavourably on the Church since it is so largely composed of Irish. The Universe has already voiced these fears and I know that they are shared by the Catholic Herald.

For the press, the incidents have of course been a god-send, August being traditionally the dullest month of the year for news. It is certain that a great deal of the vast amount written about the IRA in the last week would never have been printed in a more normal period. Much of what did appear, particularly in the sensational press, may therefore be discounted. Nevertheless, editorial comment, which has almost universally treated the IRA as a group of fanatics endeavouring to reopen a question which was closed thirty years ago, may undoubtedly be taken as an accurate reflection of public opinion generally. It is significant in this regard that the incidents provoked little press discussion of the Partition problem as such; what there was, for example in the Daily Telegraph, was wholly favourable to Stormont. Nowhere was it suggested — except in the Daily Worker — that the raison d’être of the IRA lay in the continued injustice of Partition.⁶

The belief is widely held here that the IRA operates freely in the Twenty-Six Counties. The press has constantly reported to this effect and, as a result of the recent raids, many papers have demanded action by the Irish Government to co-operate with the Northern and British Governments against the organisation. It is noteworthy that these demands are much stronger and more widespread now that raids have occurred in England than when they took place in the Six Counties.

As regards Irish opinion in this country, it is to be feared that a substantial part of it regards the Arborfield exploit with admiration for the daring and efficiency with which it was carried out and entertains a feeling of satisfaction that another blow has been struck against the ‘ancient enemy’. This attitude is probably most widespread amongst the younger and less educated immigrants. It is certainly much less prevalent amongst Irish professional men who appreciate the damage that it must do to the Anti-Partitionist cause and who, in many cases, are apprehensive about the effect on their own livelihood of any substantial growth of anti-Irish opinion as a result of the IRA’s activities.

Press interest in the IRA will no doubt fall off unless and until there are further incidents. The appearance in Court of the three men already held in custody will of course serve to stimulate interest from time to time. It also looks as if no immediate approach from the British Government is to be anticipated; this again is conditional on the absence of new incidents, an assumption which it would obviously be hazardous to make.

The thing to be feared is clearly the killing of some soldier or policeman in the course of a future raid. Unfortunately such a possibility cannot be disregarded although it seems probable that the IRA is anxious to avoid it. The bulk of the men in Army camps in this country are young conscripts, most of whom will, at any given moment, be only partially trained. Local commanders have discretion to arm guards and some may use it. The danger of a future IRA raid developing into a shooting fray is therefore by no means remote. It is hardly to be doubted that the killing of a young conscript in these circumstances would change the public mood from its present state of tolerant indifference into one of active hostility. This in turn would in all likelihood lead to incidents between the Irish here and their English neighbours. A highly unpleasant situation would be inevitable. In these circumstances, it is difficult to see how the British Government could avoid taking some action to satisfy public opinion. The revival of the Prevention of Violence Act, 1939, which was allowed to lapse last year,⁷ seems the least that might be expected.