'Summary of replies received from the Missions abroad to the Department's cable of 14 July concerning the international situation'¹
(Secret)

Washington (17 July)
The opinion is that Russia's plans for expansion in Europe have not reached the point where they require war. As regards the Berlin situation, the U.S.A. intend to remain there no matter what the outcome. If the matter cannot be settled by negotiation, it will be submitted to the Security Council and if the Council fails to take action, the U.S.A. will act unilaterally. The steps taken to strengthen the U.S. air force in Europe are merely a precautionary measure in case the Soviets should provoke an incident at Berlin.

In short, the U.S.A. do not expect the present situation to develop into an armed clash but are keeping their fingers crossed.

Ottawa (16 July)
The views given are those held in official circles in Washington, namely, that there is no evidence that Russia is preparing for war nor of any plan or policy for which she would be likely to risk war. Ultimately, however, war is inevitable. The U.S.A. know that Russia has not got the atom bomb.

The argument that Russia is not preparing for war is not regarded in Ottawa as altogether convincing. It is pointed out that there is at present nothing to stop the Russian army from occupying the whole Continent of Europe.

Brussels (16 July)
The considered opinion is that the Berlin situation will not lead to war, even if an American or British plane were to be shot down. Neither side wants war. What would the Russians gain by occupying the whole of Europe? They would still have to face the U.S.A. and would, moreover, have great difficulty in administering the conquered countries. Public opinion in Belgium is firmly of the view that war is unthinkable, especially for Berlin. No Belgian, or Frenchman, would die for Berlin.

29 July: The intervening fortnight had re-inforced the opinion that there was no danger of war. Too much fuss had been made about the Berlin situation. There was no doubt that Four Power talks on Germany would eventually be arranged.

Stockholm (5 August)
No-one takes the present war scare seriously. The Big Powers could not let the matter drift to such an extent that war would result from the Berlin situation.

Berne (18 July)
It is not thought that war is imminent, but it is difficult to see how it can be avoided eventually. Persons actually in Berlin seem to be less perturbed than those outside. Russia's conviction that there will be a grave economic crisis in the U.S.A., coupled with the election situation there, tempt her to keep up pressure. There is always the danger that she might go too far.

Madrid (17 July)
War is imminent because Russia's prestige and influence are on the wane due to (1) the failure of the Communist policy in Western European countries (2) the quarrel with Yugoslavia (3) the probable success of the Marshall Plan and (4) the increasing confidence and strength of the Western Powers. Russia should logically strike now, making Berlin the casus belli. There was reliable information that all available motorised equipment, tanks, artillery, etc. in the Balkans and on the Turkish frontier were being moved westwards as fast as possible. If war does not break out within the next few months, Russia will proceed to annex Austria by blockading Vienna and effecting an Anschluss between Czechoslovakia and Austria.

Rome (17 July)
Serious as the situation in Berlin appears to be, the door is still open for discussion. It is difficult to imagine that recourse would be had by either side to extreme measures. The Presidential election in the U.S.A. will paralyse American activity in the international field for the next few months. Russia has her own troubles with Yugoslavia.

Canberra (16 July)
Russian unpreparedness, the recent developments in the Soviet satellite States and the internal political position in the U.S.A. make an early clash unlikely. An easing of the Berlin situation is anticipated by the beginning of Four Power talks. It is anybody's guess, however, how far the Russians will be prepared to go before they leave no alternative but war.

London
Britain is determined to remain in Berlin. There is general confidence in official circles that the air lift will make this possible and that war can be avoided.