Report from John A. Belton to Seán Nunan (Dublin)
'Reaction to delay in setting up EDC'
(Copy)

The question of Western Germany’s participation in the European Defence Community seems, on all the evidence now before us, to be as vague and indefinite as it was two years ago. It had been arranged that the debate on this subject in Paris would take place on the 18th May. This debate now seems to have been indefinitely postponed. This postponement is probably due to the extremely unsatisfactory position 1) militarily in Indo-China and 2) diplomatically in the Geneva Conference. Whatever the cause or causes may be, the material result, in so far as Western Germany is concerned, is that a definite decision on EDC by the French Government remains on a very long finger.

This result is a blow, not only to the other nations of Western Europe and to the United States, but to Western Germany. Dr. Adenauer has based not only his whole foreign but his whole national and party policy on the assumption that the United States would succeed in securing ratification of EDC and thereby the rearmament of West Germany.

With the fading of this possibility, the Germans must, logically, bend their minds as to an alternative, if such exists.

Dr. Adenauer is maintained in power by a coalition, of which the Free Democratic Party is a material element. That party, through the mouthpiece of Dr. Pfleiderer¹ has for some weeks past been advocating the opening of diplomatic relations with Soviet Russia. Dr. Pfleiderer is far from being an important member of the Party. It is generally said in Bonn that the purpose of his very out-spoken addresses is to become German Ambassador to the Kremlin. Nevertheless, the Party Leader, Dr. Dehler,² not only has not disclaimed his statements but has impliedly, at last, lent a certain amount of support to them. On this issue, the Coalition Government could, of course, break up, but last week Dr. Adenauer succeeded, probably not with as much difficulty as appeared on the surface, in persuading Dr. Dehler not to pursue the idea unduly far. In effect, Dr. Adenauer succeeded in getting serious consideration of the question postponed. How long the postponement will last depends on circumstances which are largely out of Dr. Adenauer’s control. The decision lies, as it must lie, not in Bonn but in Paris and, in the ultimate analysis in Washington. The trouble up to now seems to be that the Paris mentality is so obscured by Indo-China that it cannot see the forest of Europe for the trees in Dien Bien Phu.³

The real disaster of the hold-up by France of the rearmament of Western Germany is the lack of appreciation of the loss of time. It is probably now too late to envisage a rearmed Germany as a bulwark against the East. How much the USA are beginning to appreciate the time element is shown in an announcement in today’s German Press to the effect that America’s financial aid to France and Italy will cease if EDC is not ratified forthwith.

(According to a reliable American source) the United States Government has decided that the shilly-shallying of France and to a lesser degree, Italy, can not be tolerated any longer. They have, accordingly, fixed a deadline, and this time, a final deadline that EDC should be ratified before the 1st July and, if not, the USA would have to and would seek an alternative solution.